WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – MARCH 28, 2025

After starting the week with gains on Monday and Tuesday, major U.S. stock indexes declined over the next three days, ending with weekly losses ranging from about 1% to nearly 3%. For the S&P 500, this marked its fifth negative result in six weeks.

Stocks fell on Friday after a key measure of U.S. consumer sentiment hit its lowest level since November 2022. The University of Michigan’s survey revealed growing concerns about inflation, with an increasing number of respondents expecting it to worsen. Additionally, two-thirds of participants anticipated rising unemployment—the highest percentage since 2009.

Large-cap growth stocks underperformed value stocks by a wide margin, further extending value’s year-to-date lead after growth dominated in 2024. The growth index dropped about 2.6% for the week, while the value index declined just 0.4%. Year-to-date, growth stocks were down 10.0%, whereas value stocks posted a 1.2% gain.

Inflation edged further above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target, according to Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index report. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose at an annual rate of 2.8% in February—higher than economists’ forecasts and the previous month’s reading.

Gold prices climbed for the fourth consecutive week, extending a strong year-to-date rally that briefly pushed the metal above $3,100 per ounce for the first time. By Friday afternoon, gold was trading around $3,116, up approximately 17% since the start of the year.

The U.S. government’s latest estimate of fourth-quarter economic growth showed GDP expanding at an annual rate of 2.4%—a slight upward revision from an earlier estimate but lower than the 3.1% growth recorded in the third quarter. Looking ahead, the initial estimate for first-quarter 2025 GDP is set for release on April 30, with most economists predicting growth below 2.0%.

Global trade tensions could take center stage this week, as former President Donald Trump indicated plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners on Wednesday. The extent of these tariffs may depend on reports from the commerce and treasury departments, which are expected to be delivered to him on Tuesday.

Friday’s upcoming labor market report will reveal whether the moderate slowdown in job growth seen in early 2025 continued into March. February’s employment data showed 151,000 new jobs added, slightly up from January’s 125,000 but well below the job gains recorded in the final months of 2024.

Major U.S. Economic Reports

ReportPeriodActualPrevious
S&P flash U.S. services PMIMarch54.351.0
S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMIMarch49.852.7
S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities)Jan.4.7%4.5%
Consumer confidenceMarch92.9100.1
New home salesFeb.676,000664,000
Durable-goods ordersFeb.0.9%3.3%
Durable-goods minus transportationFeb.0.7%0.1%
Initial jobless claimsMarch 22224,000225,000
GDP (second revision)Q42.4%2.3%
Advanced U.S. trade balance in goodsFeb.$147.9B-$155.6B
Advanced retail inventoriesFeb.0.1%0.1%
Advanced wholesale inventoriesFeb.0.3%0.8%
Pending home salesFeb.2.0%-4.6%
Personal incomeFeb.0.8%0.7%
Personal spendingFeb.0.4%-0.3%
PCE indexFeb.0.3%0.3%
PCE (year-over-year)2.5%2.5%
Core PCE indexFeb.0.4%0.3%
Core PCE (year-over-year)2.8%2.7%
Consumer sentiment (final)March57.057.9

Closing Prices for the Week

ContractClose
Dow Jones Industrials Average41,583.90
Nasdaq Composite17,322.99
S&P 500 Index5,580.94
CBOE Volatility Index21.65
S&P GSCI560.50
U.S. Dollar Index104.044
10-Year T-Note (Jun ’25)111-065
Crude Oil WTI (May ’25)69.36
Natural Gas (May ’25)4.065
Gold (Jun ’25)3,114.3
Silver (May ’25)34.814
Corn (May ’25)453-2
Wheat (May ’25)528-2
Soybean (May ’25)1023-0
Coffee (May ’25)379.95
Sugar #11 (May ’25)18.96
Cocoa (May ’25)8,042

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