WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – MARCH 15, 2024
The major U.S. stock indexes experienced a second consecutive week of decline, as a solid daily gain on Tuesday failed to offset later-week declines. This modest two-week retreat contrasted with the four-month rally that preceded it, during which the S&P 500 saw increases in 16 out of 18 weeks.
Despite U.S. interest rates being at their highest level since 2001, a pair of reports underscored the persistence of inflationary pressures. Both a Tuesday report on consumer prices and a Thursday update on producer prices revealed price gains slightly surpassing economists’ expectations. The Consumer Price Index registered an annual 3.2% rate in February, up from 3.1% the previous month.
The latest inflation data prompted a shift in the interest-rate outlook, leading to a rise in yields of U.S. government bonds. After a retreat to 4.08% the previous week, the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rebounded to close at 4.31% by Friday.
Amidst tightening oil supplies, the price of U.S. crude experienced a roughly 4% increase for the week, peaking at around $81.60 per barrel on Thursday afternoon. Despite slipping to around $81.00 on Friday, oil prices remained near their highest levels in over four months.
February saw a 0.6% uptick in U.S. retail sales, slightly below economists’ consensus estimate, yet marking an improvement from January’s 1.1% decline. The revised January figure was adjusted from an initial estimate of a 0.8% decline.
U.S. small-cap stocks significantly lagged behind their larger counterparts, widening the small caps’ year-to-date performance deficit. The Russell 2000 Index recorded a 2% decline for the week.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its upcoming two-day meeting concluding Wednesday. Observers will closely monitor any indications about the potential timing of rate cuts later this year, with most investors expecting a shift to rate-cutting mode to commence in either June or July based on Fed funds futures trading.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| NFIB optimism index | Feb. | 89.4 | 89.9 |
| Consumer price index | Feb. | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Core CPI | Feb. | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| CPI year over year | 3.1% | ||
| Core CPI year over year | 3.9% | ||
| Monthly U.S. federal budget | Feb. | -$296B | -$262B |
| U.S. retail sales | Feb. | 0.6% | -1.1% |
| Retail sales minus autos | Feb. | -0.6% | |
| Producer price index | Feb. | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Core PPI | Feb. | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| PPI year over year | 1.6% | 1.0% | |
| Core PPI year over year | 2.8% | 2.7% | |
| Initial jobless claims | March 8 | 209,000 | 210,000 |
| Business inventories | Jan. | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Empire State manufacturing survey | March | -20.9 | -2.4 |
| Import price index | Feb. | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Import price index minus fuel | Feb. | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| Industrial production | Feb. | 0.1% | -0.5% |
| Capacity utilization | Feb. | 78.3% | 78.3% |
| Consumer sentiment (prelim) | March | 76.5% | 76.9% |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 38,714.77 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 15,973.17 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,117.09 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 14.41 |
| S&P GSCI | 575.34 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 103.432 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Jun ’24) | 110-025 |
| Crude Oil WTI (May ’24) | 80.58 |
| Natural Gas (May ’24) | 1.789 |
| Gold (Apr ’24) | 2,161.5 |
| Silver (May ’24) | 25.381 |
| Corn (May ’24) | 436-6 |
| Wheat (May ’24) | 528-4 |
| Soybean (May ’24) | 1198-2 |
| Coffee (May ’24) | 182.95 |
| Sugar #11 (May ’24) | 22.12 |
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