WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – FEBRUARY 28, 2025
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ declined for a second consecutive week as renewed tariff threats and a pullback in technology stocks weighed on the market. The NASDAQ dropped about 3.5% for the week, while the S&P 500 slipped 1.0%. In contrast, the Dow rose 1.0%, bucking the broader trend.
Yields on U.S. government bonds hit their lowest levels in nearly three months amid concerns over recent economic data. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed Friday at approximately 4.19%, down from 4.42% the previous week and a mid-January high of 4.80%.
After a strong start to the year, U.S. stock market momentum reversed in the latter half of February. The NASDAQ saw the steepest decline among major indexes, falling around 4.0% for the month, while the S&P 500 and Dow lost 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
S&P 500 companies reported an average earnings increase of 17.8% in the fourth quarter compared to a year earlier, marking the strongest growth since late 2021, according to FactSet. This result significantly exceeded analysts’ initial forecast of 11.8%. Among sectors, financials led the way with a 56.0% earnings surge.
U.S. stocks declined on Tuesday after consumer confidence saw its sharpest monthly drop in three and a half years. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 98.3 in February from a revised 105.0 in January, coming in well below economists’ expectations. Survey respondents expressed renewed concerns over inflation risks.
Inflation remained steady in January but stayed above the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2.0% target, according to Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index report. PCE inflation increased at an annual rate of 2.5%, matching economists’ forecasts and slightly below December’s 2.6% reading.
The upcoming labor market report, set for release on Friday, will indicate whether January’s slowdown in job growth continued into February. In January, the economy added 143,000 jobs, down from 307,000 in December and 261,000 in November. However, the unemployment rate edged lower from 4.1% to 4.0%.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) | Dec. | 4.5% | 4.4% |
| Consumer confidence | Feb. | 98.3 | 105.3 |
| New home sales | Jan. | 657,000 | 734,000 |
| Initial jobless claims | Feb. 22 | 242,000 | 220,000 |
| Durable-goods orders | Jan. | 3.1% | -2.2% |
| Durable-goods minus transportation | Jan. | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| GDP (second reading) | Q4 | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| Pending home sales | Jan. | -4.9% | -5.5% |
| Personal income | Jan. | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Personal spending | Jan. | -0.2% | 0.7% |
| PCE index | Jan. | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| PCE (year-over-year) | 2.5% | 2.6% | |
| Core PCE index | Jan. | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Core PCE (year-over-year) | 2.6% | 2.9% | |
| Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods | Jan. | $153.3B | -$122.0B |
| Advanced retail inventories | Jan. | -0.5% | |
| Advanced wholesale inventories | Jan. | -0.4% | |
| Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) | Feb. | 45.5 | 39.5 |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 43,840.91 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 18,847.28 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,954.50 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 19.63 |
| S&P GSCI | 553.58 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 107.614 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Jun ’25) | 111-030 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Apr ’25) | 69.76 |
| Natural Gas (Apr ’25) | 3.834 |
| Gold (Apr ’25) | 2,848.5 |
| Silver (Mar ’25) | 31.219 |
| Corn (May ’25) | 469-4 |
| Wheat (May ’25) | 555-6 |
| Soybean (May ’25) | 1025-6 |
| Coffee (May ’25) | 373.05 |
| Sugar #11 (May ’25) | 18.52 |
| Cocoa (May ’25) | 9,124 |
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