WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – NOVEMBER 1, 2024

An otherwise calm trading week turned turbulent on Thursday as stocks dropped due to renewed concerns over the growth potential of technology and artificial intelligence stocks. Although the major indexes regained ground on Friday, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted weekly declines of over 1%, while the Dow ended with a slight drop.

Despite high interest rates and ongoing inflation concerns, the U.S. economy mostly maintained its growth momentum in the third quarter. The annualized GDP growth rate was 2.8%—a bit lower than the second quarter’s 3.0% but well above the 1.6% rate from the first quarter.

In October, job growth slowed significantly, with only 12,000 jobs added, marking the smallest increase since December 2020 and falling far short of September’s strong performance. Initial job growth numbers for August and September were also revised downwards, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.

The S&P 500 dipped by 1.0% in October, breaking a five-month streak of gains. Over the past year, this marked only the second monthly decline in contrast to 10 gains. Both the NASDAQ and the Dow were also down in October, falling 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively.

Earnings momentum remained positive after major technology companies reported results during the peak of earnings season. As of Friday, analysts projected that third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies would rise by an average of 5.1%, based on a mix of reported and expected results, per FactSet data.

Yields on U.S. government bonds rose for the sixth time in seven weeks, though the increase slowed. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.37% on Friday, up from 4.24% the previous week and significantly above its September low of 3.62%.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, showed continued easing in price pressures. The PCE Index rose 2.1% year over year in September, down from 2.3% in August and marking the lowest level since February 2021. The core PCE Index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 2.7%.

This week will bring both Tuesday’s U.S. election and a two-day Federal Reserve meeting concluding on Thursday—a shift from the Fed’s usual Tuesday-Wednesday schedule. The Fed is widely expected to approve a quarter-point interest rate cut as a follow-up to September’s half-point reduction.

Major U.S. Economic Reports

ReportPeriodActualPrevious
Advanced U.S. trade balance in goodsSept.108.2B-$94.2B
Advanced retail inventoriesSept.0.8%0.7%
Advanced wholesale inventoriesSept.-0.1%0.2%
S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities)Aug.5.2%5.9%
Consumer confidenceOct.108.799.2
Job openingsSept.7.44 million7.86 million
ADP employmentOct.233,000159,000
GDPQ32.8%3.0%
Pending home salesSept.7.4%0.6%
Personal incomeSept.0.3%0.2%
Personal spendingSept.0.5%0.3%
PCE indexSept.0.2%0.1%
PCE (year-over-year)2.1%2.2%
Core PCE indexSept.0.3%0.2%
Core PCE (year-over-year)2.7%2.7%
Initial jobless claimsOct. 26216,000227,000
U.S. employment cost indexQ30.8%0.9%
Chicago PMIOct.46.1%46.6%
U.S. employment reportOct.12,000223,000
U.S. unemployment rateOct.4.1%4.1%
U.S. hourly wagesOct.0.4%0.4%
Hourly wages year over year4.0%4.0%
S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMIOct.48.547.3
Construction spendingSept.0.1%0.1%
ISM manufacturingOct.46.5%47.2%
Auto salesOct.15.8 million

Closing Prices for the Week

ContractClose
Dow Jones Industrials Average42,052.19
Nasdaq Composite18,239.92
S&P 500 Index5,728.80
CBOE Volatility Index21.88
S&P GSCI534.80
U.S. Dollar Index104.282
10-Year T-Note (Dec ’24)110-010
Crude Oil WTI (Dec ’24)69.49
Natural Gas (Dec ’24)2.663
Gold (Dec ’24)2,749.2
Silver (Dec ’24)32.681
Corn (Dec ’24)414-4
Wheat (Dec ’24)568-0
Soybean (Jan ’25)993-6
Coffee (Dec ’24)242.95
Sugar #11 (Mar ’25)22.07
Cocoa (Mar ’25)6,950

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