WEEKLY MARKET RECAP – MARCH 8, 2024
The beginning of the week saw U.S. stock indexes facing instability, with Monday and Tuesday marked by uncertainty. However, as the week unfolded, they managed to reverse their trajectory, hovering just below their recently achieved record highs. While the NASDAQ and the Dow experienced declines of approximately 1% for the week, the S&P 500 recorded a marginal decrease.
February witnessed a notable increase in job growth, with figures reaching 275,000, surpassing the expectations of most economists who had anticipated around 200,000. This marked another instance of consistent positive momentum in the labor market. Nonetheless, initial estimates for job gains in December and January were revised downward, contributing to a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.9%, alongside a slowdown in wage growth.
During congressional testimony, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s intention to implement interest rate cuts at some point in the year, contingent upon ongoing inflation data indicating sustained alleviation. Powell emphasized the need for further data scrutiny during one of the week’s two congressional hearings.
Gold futures experienced a surge of over 6% throughout the week, reaching a record high of approximately $2,200 per ounce by Friday afternoon, up from a recent low of about $1,990 on February 14.
The European Central Bank opted to maintain its key interest rate at a record high, signaling a preference for further inflation reduction before considering rate adjustments. The bank retained its deposit rate at 4% for the fourth consecutive meeting and highlighted that future decisions would hinge on incoming data.
The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond witnessed a decline to its lowest level in five weeks, closing at approximately 4.08% on Friday, down from a recent high of 4.33% on February 22. Despite this decrease, the yield remained significantly above its year-end 2023 level of 3.88%.
An upcoming Consumer Price Index report slated for release on Tuesday will shed light on whether the trend of slightly higher-than-anticipated inflation persisted into February. Last month’s CPI report showed an annual rate of 3.1% in January, while a separate report on wholesale prices indicated the quickest monthly price increase in five months.
Major U.S. Economic Reports
| Report | Period | Actual | Previous |
| S&P final U.S. services PMI | Feb. | 52.3 | 51.3 |
| Factory orders | Jan. | -3.6% | -0.3% |
| ISM services | Feb. | 52.6% | 53.4% |
| ADP employment | Feb. | 140,000 | 107,000 |
| U.S. wholesale inventories | Jan. | -0.3% | 0.4% |
| Job openings | Jan. | 8.9 million | 8.9 million |
| Initial jobless claims | March 2 | 217,000 | 217,000 |
| U.S. productivity (revision) | Q4 | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| U.S. trade balance | Jan. | $67.4B | -$64.2B |
| Consumer credit | Jan. | $19.5 | $919M |
| U.S. nonfarm payrolls | Feb. | 275,000 | 229,000 |
| U.S. unemployment rate | Feb. | 3.9% | 3.7% |
| U.S. hourly wages | Feb. | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Hourly wages year over year | 4.3% | 4.4% |
Closing Prices for the Week
| Contract | Close |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | 38,722.69 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 16,085.11 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,123.69 |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 14.74 |
| S&P GSCI | 559.46 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 102.712 |
| 10-Year T-Note (Jun ’24) | 111-235 |
| Crude Oil WTI (Apr ’24) | 78.01 |
| Natural Gas (Apr ’24) | 1.805 |
| Gold (Apr ’24) | 2,185.5 |
| Silver (May ’24) | 24.549 |
| Corn (May ’24) | 439-6 |
| Wheat (May ’24) | 537-6 |
| Soybean (May ’24) | 1184-0 |
| Coffee (May ’24) | 185.20 |
| Sugar #11 (May ’24) | 21.15 |
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